European trailer market Lead-Times index, presented by TIP
The European trailer market has been highly disturbed the past months. In our previous market analysis, we have seen an exponential growth of raw material cost and delivery deadlines.
What is the status of the market, now in 2023? What can we expect for this year? Our experts reveal once again the TIP European Lead-Times index (ELT) to prepare yourself for the future.
What is the ELT index, presented by TIP?
The European Lead-Times index provides a holistic analysis on market forecast. It offers an up-to-date statistical measure of the lead-times trend, to help us better anticipate the future.
It is calculated as a function of the market and market trends. The market average is 50; a higher figure indicates that the average time between ordering the equipment and receiving it is higher, and conversely, a lower figure indicates that the average time is lower.
As forecasted in our 2022 report, the lead-time index shows stabilization of the market. Indeed, the few events which led to a significant price increase have stabilized. Yet, the market has not returned to pre-pandemic times.
Despite some stabilization, uncertainties remain in the market
First of all, there are no major components shortage anymore that is impacting the production of trailers. Additionally, the raw material prices such as steel, aluminum and wood have decreased.
We also have noticed a positive correlation between lead times and price: now that the raw material prices are lower, lead times are shorter than before. Prices might still be higher than pre-Ukraine war, but the business interruptions in the manufacturing process are now gone.
Despite a stabilization in raw material prices, manufacturers are facing other concerns: inflation and energy prices. Therefore, manufacturers are suffering from cost overruns due to rising energy costs.
Additionally, the demand for transportation equipment is flat since couple of months because of the lead time, prices, and the war. We forecast that there won’t be a change in the coming months, which will allow manufacturers to decongest their order book.
What is our recommendation?
Our experts predict that prices will remain as stable as they are today in the coming months. However, there is likely to be a moderate downward shift 2nd or 3rd quarter for deliveries in 2024, once European countries find cheaper energy alternatives. Shorter lead-times result in less risk in manufacturing cost and avoiding an overheated component market and consequently component cost.
Because of the remaining challenges, TIP recommends holding on to existing equipment longer. There are multiple ways to extend the economic life of a trailer that are easy to implement (e.g., refurbishment, modifications or extra maintenance in our TIP workshops).
If you need more equipment, we recommend you ask your equipment service provider if it has equipment available, or buy second-hand equipment to complete your fleet.
Anticipate your needs!
TIP constantly watches the evolving market closely to understand, anticipate and adapt accordingly to these challenges. The ELT Index is a great example of one of the tools that is used.
For 55 years of servicing its own extensive trailer fleet, TIP is one of the leading providers of both equipment and services within Europe and Canada. We specialise in providing the transportation and logistics sector with leasing, rental, maintenance and repairs through a wide selection of trailer equipment.
Whether you are already a TIP customer or not, we offer our services from more than 130 locations spread over 18 countries in Europe and Canada, with experts on hand to maintain all asset types.
TIP also offers a wide range of high quality 2nd-hand trailers and trucks across Europe and Canada.
Contact your closest TIP branch now to keep your fleet going!
